Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
313 PM EST Thu Dec 02 2021
Valid Fri Dec 03 2021 - Sun Dec 05 2021
...Widespread record breaking warmth likely throughout the central United
States today...
...Gusty winds and fire weather concerns located over the northern High
Plains...
...Winter weather possible beginning Saturday over the Northern Tier...
A relatively tranquil weather pattern is expected to remain over the Lower
48 through the end of the work week, with dominant high pressure located
across the southern half of the U.S. and a powerful jet stream remaining
over the Northern Tier. As a result, well above average temperatures are
forecast for nearly the entire country over the next few days. The warmest
weather will occur today as highs soar into the 60s and 70s from the Great
Plains to the Mid-Atlantic, which equates to around 20-30F above normal
for early December. Current observations indicate dozens of locations are
nearing their daily record high temperature reading from the Rockies to
east of the Appalachians. Looking ahead to the weekend, highs are forecast
to remain above normal on Friday, and some areas in the Southeast may
threaten their daily high record again. However, temperatures should begin
to cool slightly as a cold front enters the midsection of the Nation. The
combination of these warm and dry conditions, along with gusty winds could
lead to an Elevated Risk of fire weather, per the Storm Prediction Center.
Additionally, High Wind Warnings extend along the Rocky Mountain Front
this afternoon for wind gusts around 65 mph.
Little precipitation is forecast across the U.S. through the beginning of
the weekend. A majority of the precipitation activity should likely remain
confined occur to the Northeast and Great Lakes as a potent low pressure
system swings through southeast Canada. This system and associated cold
front will aid in producing showers across the Northeast today. Meanwhile,
with arctic air surging behind the cold front, lake effect snow is likely
to begin overnight into Friday morning across the typical snowbelts of
Upstate New York. Light snow is also possible for upslope regions in far
northern New England. Afterwards, the next area of focused precipitation
will emerge over the High Plains on Saturday as a lee-side cyclone
develops, bringing accumulating snows chances to the Northern Tier. The
latest WPC Winter Storm Severity Index highlights moderate potential
winter storm impacts with this activity beginning Saturday, so stay tuned
for updates to the forecast going forward. Over the Southern Plains, a
dryline interacting with a slow moving cold front will produce
thunderstorms capable of producing moderate to locally heavy rainfall on
Saturday, although widespread excessive rainfall is not anticipated.
Asherman/Snell
Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
Storm Prediction CenterUnited States 2 Day ForecastWPC Short Range Forecasts (Days ½-2½)
°C
