Shelter Island, NY 14 Day Weather

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 257 PM EDT Mon Aug 02 2021 Valid Tue Aug 03 2021 - Thu Aug 05 2021 ...Monsoonal showers to bring heavy rains and localized flash flooding through the Rockies Monday night through Wednesday... ..Heavy rains and flooding possible from the Central Gulf coast, northeastward across the coastal Southeast and eastern Carolinas... ...Below average temperatures expected from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the East. Above average temperatures expected from the Southwest into the Pacific Northwest and eastward into the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi... Monsoonal showers will remain active on the northern and eastern peripheries of the mid to upper level ridge that is building from the Southwest into the Pacific Northwest. This pattern will support active monsoonal showers through much of the Rockies from Monday night through Wednesday. These heavy rains, however, will be to the east of where the heaviest rains have fallen recently from the Southwest into the Great Basin. However, with moisture values expected to be above average in the region of expected monsoonal showers, localized flash flooding is possible over the next few days through the Rockies. This is especially so in area of recent burn scars and in regions of steep terrain. As the mid to upper level ridge builds from the Southwest into the Pacific Northwest, above average temperatures are expected across these regions and eastward into the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley region. A frontal boundary is expected to remain nearly stationary over the next few days from the Gulf coast, across the coastal Southeast and eastern Carolinas. This front will be the focus for a multi day heavy rain event as several rounds of potentially heavy rains move along the front where moisture values are expected to remain much above average. Much of the region in the vicinity of this stationary front has seen above average rain totals over the past few weeks. This, along with the potential for additional heavy rains will pose an increasing threat of flooding and flash flooding across these regions. In addition to the heavy rains in the vicinity of the above mentioned stationary front, temperatures are expected to remain much below average over the next few days with high temperatures 10-15 degrees colder than average from North Florida into the Southeast and Carolinas. A few record low maximum temperatures are possible across portions of the Southeast over the next 2 days where highs are forecast to remain in the 70s. Oravec Graphics available at:
NWS Weather Prediction Center Storm Prediction Center
United States 2 Day Forecast