Expires:No;;459171 AXNT20 KNHC 251017 TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Jan 25 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure located north of the Caribbean Sea combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support pulsing winds to gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia through at least early Wed morning. Wave heights generated by these winds are forecast to be in the range of 10-13 ft, mainly around daybreak each day. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 04N18W. The ITCZ axis continues from 04N18W to 03N30W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-05N between 10W-30W, and from 00N-06N between 30W and 50W.
GULF OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a ridge over the Gulf waters and lower pressures over Mexico supports fresh to strong southerly winds across the western Gulf, particularly from 23N to 28N W of 94W. A recent scatterometer pass confirmed the presence of these winds, forecast to persist today. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are noted across the remainder of the western Gulf, with gentle to moderate E-SE winds elsewhere. A surface trough is analyzed near the W coast of the Yucatan peninsula producing mainly moderate winds. High clouds are moving from central Mexico into the Gulf region due to strong southwesterly flow aloft. A weak cold front will move off the coast of Texas this evening, then stall in the NW Gulf through Tue. A reinforcing cold front will reach the stationary front by Tue night, and the combined front will move E across the basin through Thu. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front, with gales developing over the west-central part of the Gulf on Wed, and over the SW Gulf late Wed through Thu. Seas are forecast to build up to 13 or 14 ft with the strongest winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... Pulsing winds to gale force are expected during the overnight and early morning hours near the coast of Colombia. Please, refer to the Special Features section above for details.
Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail, pulsing to fresh to strong over the Gulf of Honduras tonight through Tue night, with seas building to 6-8 ft by Tue night. Fresh to locally strong winds are also expected in the Windward passage and south of Dominican Republic tonight. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade winds flow is seen across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers. Patches of low level moisture with possible light showers, carried by the trade winds, are affecting most of Honduras and north-central Nicaragua. Northerly swell will impact the NE Caribbean passages on Tue with additional pulses of N swell reaching the same area Thu night into Fri. Northerly swell will also propagate into the Tropical North Atlantic waters during the next several days. A reinforcing cold front, currently located along 22N W of 60W will approach the Atlantic waters of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola late today, reaching these islands on Tue, bringing an increase in the likelihood of rain. Another cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Thu followed by fresh to strong northerly winds. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A reinforcing cold front extends across the central and western Atlantic from 31N43W to 26N50W to 23N60W to 23N73W where it becomes stationary to the NW Bahamas. Fresh to strong W to NW with locally higher gusts are observed in recent satellite derived wind data N of 28N and W of the front to near 66W. Doppler radar shows a few showers associated with the front between the NW Bahamas and the coast of Florida. This system is forecast to move southward reaching 20N this evening, and the Greater Antilles on Tue. A pre-frontal trough extends from 30N41 to 19N60W. Scattered showers are near the trough axis N of 26N. Patches of low level moisture in a band-like are noted near the southern end of the trough axis crossing the northern Leeward Islands into the NE Caribbean. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the influence of a ridge, anchored by a high pressure of 1023 mb located midway between the Madeira and the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh winds are along the southern periphery of the ridge.
As for the forecast: Southerly flow will increase across the waters E of north-central Florida today and tonight. Low pressure crossing N of Bermuda will bring fresh to strong W winds to the waters N of 30N between 60W-70W on Tue. A stronger cold front will move off the SE U.S coast Wed night while the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies N of the forecast region. Gale force winds and very large seas are expected with this system, across the Atlantic waters mainly N of 27N. This front is forecast to move across South Florida on Thu, with the main impact in the marine conditions.