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Latest Atlantic Tropical Report
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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Aug 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: A Gale Warning for the Meteo-France marine areas of Agadir and Canary Islands is in effect through at least 02/0300 UTC. Expect N to NE winds of Force 8 on the Beaufort Scale with rough seas. Please see the High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo- France at gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 32W south of 21N, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is embedded in dry and dusty Saharan Air Layer, inhibiting the development of showers and thunderstorms. An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 42W, south of 16N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No convection is noted with this wave at this time.

A Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 76W, south of 20N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of Cuba from 18N to 20N between 75W and 78W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 11N27W to 08N37W. The ITCZ continues from 08N37W to 07N41W, then continues W of a tropical wave near 07N42W to 05N47W. Scattered moderate convection is along and south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 04N to 14N and E of 44W.

GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extends across the basin anchored by a 1019 mb high near 24N83W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the Bay of Campeche, S of 20N between 94W and 96W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted in the NW Gulf off the Louisiana and Texas coast, N of 25N between 91W and 94W. Isolated thunderstorms are also observed off the Florida Panhandle. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the basin with seas 1 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, surface ridging and gentle to locally moderate return flow will prevail across the basin through the forecast period. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will pulse off the Yucatan peninsula into the Bay of Campeche every night through Thu. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage across the northern Gulf of Mexico Mon into Tue as a cold front pushes south toward the northern Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical waves in the Caribbean Sea.

Thunderstorms continue across the far SW portions of the Gulf of Honduras. Additionally, thunderstorms are noted in the SW Caribbean S of 11N between 77W and 84W. Otherwise, pressure gradient between the Azores high to the north of the area and low pressure across Colombia is leading to fresh to strong trade winds in the central Caribbean with seas 8 to 10 ft. Moderate trades are noted elsewhere with seas 3 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, the Azores high extending a ridge to the northern Caribbean will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds in the central Caribbean through Mon morning. Fresh to locally strong winds can be expected across this region through the rest of the week. A tropical wave moving across the central basin will support scattered showers across the NW Caribbean through tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the special features section for information on the East Atlantic Gale Warning. A broad 1031 mb high pressure system near the Azores dominates the tropical Atlantic. In the SW N Atlantic, scattered thunderstorms are noted off the Florida coast from 24N to 30N and W of 77W. Winds are moderate to fresh N of 28N with fresh winds north of Hispaniola. Seas range 3 to 5 ft. In the central Atlantic, a trough extends from 23N49W to 16N49W. No convection is associated with this feature. Gentle to moderate winds prevail through this area with seas 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast west of 65W, the Azores high will continue to extend a ridge across the region through midweek. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola in the evenings through Mon. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh winds will continue N of 28N off the NE Florida coast through Thu. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over the NW offshore waters today, increasing in coverage on Mon into Tue. $$ AReinhart