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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Nov 29 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A surface 1017 mb low pressure is depicted near 19N96W along a trough. Strong NE winds to 30 kt prevail east of the trough and extend northward to 21N. Seas in this zone are 9 to 14 ft. A 1027 mb high center was analyzed across eastern Mexico, to the west of the low over the Gulf. Therefore, a tight pressure gradient is supporting gale- force winds off the Veracruz coast through early this morning. Rough seas can be expected with these winds. Conditions across the Gulf will improve today as the low dissipates. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Offshore Waters Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Sierra Leone border along 08N13W, then extends southwestward to 02N35W. The ITCZ continues from 02N35W to 02N45W. Numerous strong convection is along the African coast from 00N to 10N and extends westward 20W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the Equator to 06N between 23W and 37W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale Warning. Scattered showers are noted across the SW Gulf, south of 22N, between 92W and 98W. This convection is associated to a weak low and a surface trough in the area. Moderate to locally heavy rainshowers are seen in the central Gulf. Meanwhile, a broad surface ridge is dominating the rest of the Gulf, centered on a 1028 mb high over the lower Mississippi Valley. Fresh to strong winds are noted in the Bay of Campeche with seas 8 to 14 ft. Fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are noted across most of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are present just offshore from Texas and Louisiana.
For the forecast, gale force winds near the low in the Bay of Campeche will end by this morning, with the rough seas subsiding later today. Strong return flow will set up across the northern Gulf by tonight ahead of the next approaching front that will push off the Texas coast on Fri.
A stationary front extends from central Cuba to northern Belize. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds prevail in the NW Caribbean. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across this area. No significant convection is depicted in association with the front.
The Mid-Atlantic ridge extending southwestward from a 1019 mb high near 32N44W to the southern Bahamas. This feature is supporting a typical trade-wind pattern across much of the basin. Fresh to strong NE to ENE trade winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft prevail across the south-central basin north of Colombia. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and seas at 3 to 4 ft are noted just south of the Mona and Windward Passages. Moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge will continue shifting E today as a front stalls in the NW basin. This will decrease the coverage of fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean today and Thu. The large area of strong winds will return by Fri night as another high pressure builds over the area. A stationary front stretches from Cuba to Belize with moderate winds and 7 ft seas behind it. The front will linger over this area before dissipating later in the week.
A cold front is noted in the western Atlantic from 31N70W to 28N78W with moderate N winds behind it and seas to 7 ft. Some showers are occurring behind it. A cold front extends from southeast of Bermuda near 31N57W southwestward through the southern Bahamas, then continues across central Cuba and into the NW Caribbean. Isolated showers are within 150 nm southeast of this boundary north of 25N. Moderate NW winds are seen behind the front, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. Ahead of the front winds moderate to fresh southwest winds are present with seas to 8 ft.
High pressure extends across the central Atlantic anchored by a 1019 mb high near 32N44W. Light to gentle winds with seas to 5 ft are noted under the influence of the high. In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N27W to 21N35W with a trough extending from that front to 17N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted ahead of the front N of 22N and E of 22W. Moderate to fresh winds are ahead and behind the front with seas 4 to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N58W to central Cuba. The front will stretch from near 31N51W to central Cuba, becoming stationary from the southern Bahamas to central Cuba by Wed evening. The front will gradually dissipate through Fri morning. Moderate to fresh winds will persist behind the front today. Winds across the area will veer E to SE Thu night and Fri while becoming fresh to strong as the high pressure moves E of Bermuda. $$ AReinhart