Expires:No;;878325 AXNT20 KNHC 261756 TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Oct 26 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Zeta is centered near 19.1N 85.3W at 26/1500 UTC or 121 nm SE of Cozumel Mexico moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 16N-20N between 83W-86W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 15N-23N between 76W-88W. A NW motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the north Tuesday night. A faster northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula later today or tonight, move over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. Strengthening is forecast, and Zeta is expected to become a hurricane later today. Some weakening is likely while Zeta moves over the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and early Tuesday. Zeta is forecast to strengthen again while it moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico later on Tuesday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest on Zeta NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 40W/41W from 02N to 16N, moving westward at about 10 kt. Satellite imagery indicates scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 04N-12N between 36W-46W. A tropical wave is along 58W from 06N to 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N-20N between 53W-60W. A sharp upper-level trough with axis just E of Barbados is helping to induce this convective activity. Fresh to locally strong winds are also noted near the northern end of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from Guinea near 10N14W to 09N20W. The ITCZ continues from 09N20W to 05N30W to 07N40W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 07N43W and goes to 06N49W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is from 05N-10N between 28W-36W.
GULF OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Zeta currently located in the NW Caribbean Sea. More precisely, Zeta will strengthen to a hurricane near 20.1N 86.7W this evening with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, move to near then coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near 21.5N 88.8W Tue morning, to near 23.3N 90.8W Tue evening with maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts to 85 kt, to near 25.7N 91.8W Wed morning, then begin to weaken as turns to the north-northeast to near 28.9N 90.7W Wed evening with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, then move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 33.0N 87.0W Thu morning. Zeta will become extratropical as it moves across the Mid-Atlantic States early on Fri. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Wed, reach from southeastern Alabama early Thu and from near Sarasota, to the NW Yucatan Peninsula and to the far eastern Bay of Campeche by late Fri. Fresh northerly winds will follow in behind the front. Expect for long-period swell from Zeta to begin impacting the south-central waters late this afternoon. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over the Straits of Florida. In addition, a stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 31N86W to 29N90W to E Texas near 30N94W. Radar imagery shows the front is void of precipitation. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Zeta located in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Hurricane conditions and storm surge are expected in portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico this evening through early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions could occur over extreme western Cuba today and tonight. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is ongoing and expected to continue from Zeta across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding in urban areas.
Southwesterly flow from the eastern Pacific region will continue to advect abundant moisture over Central America but mainly from Panama to Nicaragua. This will maintain the likelihood of showers and tstms over that area on Mon. Fresh winds will prevail over the east-central Caribbean into Tue due to the pressure gradient between Zeta and high pressure over the Atlantic.
ATLANTIC OCEAN... A couple of tropical waves are between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please, see Tropical Waves section for details.
A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 31N77W to Melbourne Florida near 28N81W. Scattered moderate convection has developed ahead of this trough, encompassing the Bahamas and adjacent waters. A strong 1030 mb high centered near 33N32W dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast area. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are noted along the southern periphery of the Atlantic ridge mainly E of 55W. Similar wind speeds are observed between the ridge and lower pressures over W Africa. These winds are affecting the Canary Islands and the Atlantic waters of W Africa N of Dakar Senegal.