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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 738 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period, with winds briefly increasing to gale-force over the NW coast of Colombia by Wed night due to low pressure over northern Colombia deepening. Seas will build to 8-14 ft as a result of these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is off the coast of W Africa, with axis along 19W from 05N-20N, moving west at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of the wave axis south of 12N between 10W-20W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 46W from 07N-20N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers prevail along the wave axis and south of 11N.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 58W from 08N- 25N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted over the southern portion of the wave mainly south of 11N. A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 78W from 03N- 18N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers prevail along and east of the wave axis between 72W-78W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 06N32W. The ITCZ extends from 06N32W to 04N43W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 08N48W to 08N57W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered showers are noted within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 48W-57W. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging prevails over the basin, anchored by a 1022 mb high centered over the Florida Panhandle. With this, gentle anticyclonic winds prevail across the Gulf waters. Scattered showers are developing over the Yucatan Peninsula reaching the Bay of Campeche at this time. This activity will continue overnight as the usual thermal trough moves west from the peninsula into the southwest Gulf. Scattered showers are also developing over Florida and moving west reaching the far east Gulf waters mainly east of 82W. This activity will dissipate tonight. High pressure ridge will remain near the northern Gulf coast through the weekend. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will prevail across the basin, except that winds will be fresh to strong to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula during the evening and overnight hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean. Refer to the Tropical Wave section above for details on the wave traversing the central Caribbean.

Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave, only scattered showers are noted across the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across most of the basin except between 70W-80W, where moderate to fresh winds prevail.

High pressure north of the area will continue to support fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will briefly increase to gale force along the coast of Colombia by Wed night. Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds will affect the Gulf of Honduras Tue night through Thu night. The tropical wave along 78W will cross the western Caribbean through Thu night. A surge of fresh to strong winds and building seas will accompany this wave. The next tropical wave will reach the Windward Islands tonight and move across the eastern Caribbean Wed and Thu, across the central Caribbean Thu night through Sat and into the western Caribbean Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the waves traversing the basin.

A surface trough extends from 30N66W to 28N69W. To the east, another trough extends from 30N53W to 28N57W. Scattered showers are noted along the troughs. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 34N39W.

High pressure dominating the basin will maintain gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the Bahamas. The high will be strong enough to generate fresh to strong east winds between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola through Fri night, primarily during the evening hours.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA