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Latest Atlantic Tropical Report
Expires:No;;128451 AXNT20 KNHC 311736 TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Oct 31 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1007 mb low pressure is centered near 15N71W along a tropical wave with an axis along 71W from 22N southward moving westward at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is evident near the low from 12N-19N between 66W-73W. This system is gradually becoming better organized, and conditions are conducive for further development. A tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so while the disturbance moves generally westward into the western Caribbean Sea. Interests in Honduras and Nicaragua should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the ABC Islands and Jamaica through the weekend. The chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours is high. Please refer to the Tropical Weather Outlook at www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones for more details.

Gale Warning: The low in the Caribbean will develop gale force winds by 01/0600 UTC near 15N between 74W-76W. As the low continues to progress westward, winds will increase to storm force by 02/0000 UTC from 16N-18N between 77W-83W and will continue through at least 02/1200 UTC. Seas will build to 15 ft in this area. For more information, please refer to the Atlantic High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

Potential Heavy Rainfall event: Heavy rainfall is possible across parts of Central America, from late this weekend into early next week, particularly in western Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras. Flash flooding and mudslides may be possible, if heavy rainfall occurs. The rainfall threat may be enhanced by possible tropical cyclone development of the low pressure area associated with a tropical wave along 71W. Please refer to bulletins and forecasts provided by your national meteorological service for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W from 10N southward moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is currently associated with both the wave and the ITCZ noted from 03N-08N between 32W-38W.

See the Special Features section for more information on the tropical wave along 71W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W from 22N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N-22N between 74W-77W. Model guidance shows this wave is likely to merge with the tropical wave currently along 71W during the next 24 hours. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 09N13W to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 08N17W to 04N33W, then continues west of a tropical wave near 03N34W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm of the ITCZ between 15W-32W.

GULF OF MEXICO... A weak stationary front is lingering across the SE Gulf, extending off the SW Florida coast near 26N82W to the northern Yucatan near 21N87W. Showers are seen along the front with isolated moderate convection right off the NE Yucatan coast. Moderate NNE winds are noted behind the front in the SE Gulf. A surface trough stretches across the western Gulf from 19N92W to the southeast Texas coast near 30N95W. No significant convection is associated with this feature. Light to moderate winds are noted across the rest of the Gulf. Seas are averaging 3-6 ft with upwards of 7 ft in the southern Bay of Campeche.

Fresh to strong northerly winds will continue in the Bay of Campeche this morning. A strong cold front will move into the northern Gulf Sun, extend from southern Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Mon, and move south of the area Tue. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected across the region Sun night through Tue. Strong winds are possible in the SE Gulf Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section about the low and tropical wave along 71W and the tropical waves section for the other tropical wave in the west-central Caribbean.

The monsoon trough extends from north of Colombia near 12N73W to the coast of Panama near 09N79W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the SW Caribbean from 09N-15N between 76W- 84W. Scattered moderate convection is also moving across the Lesser Antilles from 10N-15N between 59W-64W. Moderate to fresh trades are in the eastern Caribbean with light to moderate winds across the rest of the basin. Seas are averaging 3-6 ft with upwards of 9 ft near the 1007 mb low.

A low pressure area along a tropical wave in the central Caribbean will travel westward into the western Caribbean, with widespread showers and thunderstorms. A tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so while the disturbance moves generally westward into the western Caribbean Sea. Heavy rainfall is already affecting Costa Rica and Nicaragua adjacent waters. Regardless of development, gale and storm force winds are expected over the waters from 14N to 18N between 72W and 85W tonight through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the western Atlantic near 31N62W to 27N77W, then stalls from 27N77W to the southeast Florida coast near 27N80W. Showers are within 50 nm of the front. Moderate to fresh NNE winds are north of the cold front with light to gentle winds south of it. Seas are averaging 3-6 ft with upwards of 8 ft near 31N. A pre-frontal trough is noted from 28N67W to 23N71W. Scattered moderate convection is near this trough and to the west of it across the Bahamas from 21N-28N between 67W-77W. Surface ridging extends across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1027 mb high near Portugal. Light to gentle winds prevail under the influence of the high pressure with seas 5-7 ft.

The cold front will stall and dissipate from 28N69W to the Florida Keys later today. A strong cold front will sweep across the forecast area Sun night through Tue, with strong north to northwest winds and building seas expected behind the front.

$$ AReinhart