Expires:No;;667322 AXNT20 KNHC 282319 TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 619 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 09N16W to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to 01N22W to 01S39W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04S-02N between 23W-31W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere from 05S-03N between 21W-32W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 28/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from near College Station Texas to Corpus Christi to Brownsville and inland over northern Mexico to 24N99W to 25N104W. A warm front extends from College Station to Galveston to 28N93W. A potent occluded low that is prevalent from the surface to 400 mb is centered near the Texas/Oklahoma border, not far from Dallas. This system is driving the aforementioned fronts. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen over the western Gulf of Mexico within 45 nm of a line from Galveston Bay to 24N96W. Additional showers and tstorms are offshore the coast of southwest Louisiana. Water vapor imagery shows dry air over the southern and eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate wind speeds cover most of the basin. NW winds will increase tonight behind the front as it moves into the western Gulf. The cold front will move E across the Gulf through Wed. Weak low pressure will develop over the NE Gulf Wed and quickly move across northern Florida. A stationary front may linger over the northern Gulf Wed night into Thu. Another cold front will move across the Gulf waters Thu night through Sat. This front will be accompanied by fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas.
CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad mid- to upper-level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea. Isolated to scattered showers are noted in the far SW portion of the basin south of 13N and west of 74W, including over most of Costa Rica and far western Panama. A surface trough extends over W Cuba to the Yucatan Channel, with minimal shower activity noted. Elsewhere, the weather is relatively quiet. Light to gentle winds prevail across the basin. Relatively weak high pressure across the region will maintain generally gentle to moderate winds across most of the Caribbean Sea for the next several days. Winds will increase across the south-central Caribbean Thu night through Sat night, with strong to near gale force winds developing near the coast of Colombia. Winds may pulse to minimal gale force on Fri night and Sat night near the coast of NW Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N64W to 27N70W to Andros Island Bahamas near 25N78W. A surface trough continues from Andros Island to Havana Cuba to the Yucatan Channel. Isolated showers and tstorms are along the cold front, including over portions of the central and northwest Bahamas. Strong winds are on both sides of the front, north of 27N. Another surface trough, located a few hundred nm E of the cold front, extends from 31N56W to 26N67W. Scattered moderate tstorms are seen within 60 nm of a line from 32N59W to 29N63W. Isolated moderate showers and tstorms are within 60 nm of a line from 29N63W to 27N68W. Farther E, an area of upper-level divergence over the central Atlantic is inducing scattered showers north of 26N between 39W-53W. A surface trough from 32N30W to 31N31W is inducing isolated showers and tstorms along and just ahead of it. A sharp upper-level trough along 30W extending southward from 40N to 15N is responsible for some scattered showers seen from 13N-24N between 12W-18W, including over the Cape Verde Islands. The front over the western Atlantic will reach from near 31N61W to the central Bahamas tonight, then pass east of the forecast waters on Wed. A low pressure system will move across northern Florida Wed, emerge off the NE Florida coast Wed night, then track east across the area through Thu night. Another low pressure system will track NE along the eastern U.S. coast from Fri through Sat. The trailing cold front will sweep across the area Sat and Sat night, with strong to near gale force winds expected across the northern waters. $$ Hagen