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Latest Atlantic Tropical Report
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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Nov 27 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 10N14W to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 24W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails over the Gulf of Mexico, anchored by 1019 mb high pressure centered over the NE Gulf near 29N83W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the Gulf, except in the vicinity of the high where light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range over the NE Gulf, and 3-4 ft over the remainder of the Gulf.

A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf Sat night. The front will reach from the western Florida Panhandle to near 25N90W and the eastern Bay of Campeche Sun evening and to southeast of the Gulf by Mon evening. The front will be followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas. Winds may reach gale force in the extreme SW Gulf Mon and Mon night. Winds will diminish and seas subside throughout late Mon night and Tue. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift eastward Tue through Wed night allowing for moderate to fresh east to southeast flow to set up across the area. Another cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf Wed and Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure over the NE Gulf of Mexico and low pressure across Colombia is supporting moderate to fresh trades across the central Caribbean, except reaching near 25 kt off the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range over the south central Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

Moderate to fresh trades will continue across most of the basin into early next week, except for northeast winds pulsing to strong speeds near the coast of Colombia at night and into the early afternoon hours. A cold front will reach the northwestern Caribbean Mon evening, extend from eastern Cuba to the northeast part of Honduras Tue afternoon and become stationary through Wed night. The front will be followed by fresh to strong northwest winds and building seas. Winds and seas are expected to diminish Tue. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1010 mb low pressure is centered in the Atlantic Ocean near 25N60W. Associated convection is well removed from the center of the low, N of 24N between 47W and 56W. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-10 ft, are noted in this area of convection. Conditions have become less favorable for tropical cyclone development associated to this low, and probability of development has decreased from the medium to low category.

A trough extends across the western Atlantic off the U.S. East Coast from 29N80W to 34N76W. Showers are seen within 60 nm of the trough. Farther east, high pressure ridging extends across the central and eastern Atlantic anchored by a 1027 mb high near 33N39W. Outside of the area of strong winds mentioned above, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail west of 55W and N of 20N, while moderate to fresh winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft prevail N of 20N and E of 55W. S of 20N, moderate to fresh winds and seas of 6-7 ft prevail W of 45W, and fresh to strong winds and seas of 8-9 ft prevail E of 45W.

High pressure over the western Atlantic extending westward to Florida will weaken through Sat as a weakening cold front moves across the western part of the area. Southerly winds will increase over the NW waters beginning Sun afternoon as a strong cold front approaches. The front will move off NE Florida early on Mon, reach from near 31N77W to South Florida by early Mon evening, from near 31N70W to the southeastern Bahamas and to eastern Cuba by early Tue evening and weaken as it reaches from near 31N65W to eastern Cuba Wed evening. Fresh to strong northwest winds and building seas will follow in behind the front. Winds diminish late Tue, with the highest seas shifting to northeast of the Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong, are expected ahead of the front.

$$ AL