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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Mar 03 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC.
Significant Swell Event: An area of long-period northwest to north swell with a period of 11-13 seconds covers the waters north of 25N between 119W-137W. Seas peaking to 15 ft are over these waters. The swell will gradually subside through Mon morning, but before then, seas of 9-13 ft will impact the waters west of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro today and tonight. Please read the latest High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A trough extends from 07N78W to 05N85W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 04N100W to 02N112W and to 02N128W. IT resumes at 02N135W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 NM north of the ITCZ between 135W-140W. A second ITCZ extends from 06S85W to 03S100W to 05S114W to 05S120W to 04S130W. No significant convection is noted.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
High pressure is over the offshore forecast waters of Baja California, with the associated gradient producing moderate to fresh northwest winds. Seas of 8-12 ft are over these waters, except for slighter higher seas of 9-13 ft north of Punta Eugenia. Light to gentle winds continue over the central and south parts of the Gulf of California, while moderate to fresh southwest to west winds are over the northern part of the Gulf. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range across most of the gulf except N of 29N, where 3-4 ft seas are present. Over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds are present as were highlighted in overnight scatterometer data. For the forecast, strong high pressure will continue to build across the area through Mon. The resulting tight gradient will increase the moderate to fresh northwest to north winds west of Baja California to fresh to strong speeds on Mon and Mon night. Long-period northwest swell will continue to build seas to a peak of 12 or 13 ft north of Cabo San Lazaro through tonight. Seas will subside to 8-11 ft over the offshore waters of Baja California through Mon night and to just below 8 ft by midweek. midweek. Seas to 8 ft will reach the Revillagigedo Islands into Mon morning.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR High pressure over the western Atlantic is maintaining fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas over these waters are 5-7 ft. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of Panama, with seas of 5-6 ft just south of the Azuero Peninsula to about 05N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas continue. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue to support fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the Papagayo region through early this afternoon, with seas to 7 ft. In the Gulf of Panama, gentle to moderate north winds and seas of 3-5 ft will prevail over the next several days. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are expected with seas of 4-6 ft through tonight, subsiding to 3-4 ft Mon.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details on a significant swell event that is presently impacting the waters north of 25N and east of 137W.
High pressure is the dominate weather feature over the area, north of about 14N and west of 110w. Large long-period swell is propagating across the northern forecast waters, with seas of 11-15 ft north of 25N between 119W-137W. Fresh trade winds, and seas of 8-10 ft are over the waters from 05N to 15N W of 120W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are present over the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, strong high pressure will continue to build across the forecast region. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ will support an area of fresh trade winds across the west- central waters. The aerial coverage of the trades will increase by tonight into Mon morning as the pressure gradient tightens. The large set of northwest long-period swell will continue to spread across the area through Mon, with seas of 8 ft and greater seas covering most of the waters north of 05N and west of 110W by Mon morning. $$ Aguirre