Active Systems All 2022 Systems Archive Atlantic Outlook Atlantic Discussion Pacific Outlook Pacific Discussion
|Eastern Pacific Tropical Discussion - Time in UTC:|
|Latest Eastern Pacific Tropical Report|
Expires:No;;501969 AXPZ20 KNHC 080913 TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Dec 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 08N77W to 07N90W. The ITCZ continues from 07N90W to 08N110W to 10N128W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 13N between 101W and 110W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 90 nm S of the ITCZ between 119W and 122W, and from 08N to 11N between 125W and 137W. W of 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate N-NE winds. Seas are 3-5 ft. Light to gentle and variable winds are over the Gulf of California, with the exception of moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds S of 25N. Seas are 2-4 ft within these winds, and 1-2 ft elsewhere across the Gulf. In the Tehuantepec region, fresh to strong N winds are occurring with seas up to 9 ft. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds are noted per scatterometer data between Cabo Corriente and Los Cabos, including Las Marias islands. Light to gentle variable winds and seas of 3-5 ft are seen across the remainder Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California. This system will strengthen later in the week, with N winds increasing to fresh tonight through Sat. Expect fresh to locally strong NW to N winds in the southern and central Gulf of California this afternoon through Fri morning as a high pressure persists over the Great Basin. These winds will build seas to 7 ft at the entrance to the Gulf of California late today through Fri morning. Strong to near gale force N winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri. Looking ahead, a cold front is forecast to reach Baja California Norte by late Sun, bringing large NW swell to the waters west of Baja California late Sun through Mon. The front could bring strong winds to the northern Gulf of California by Sun evening into Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds are present across the Gulf of Papagayo region, and downwind to near 88W. Seas with these winds are 6-7 ft. Fresh NE winds are blowing across the Gulf of Fonseca, and downwind to near 12.5N88.5W. Moderate northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama, and downwind to about 07N. Light to gentle winds are noted per satellite derived wind data elsewhere. Seas are generally 3-4 ft, except across the offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to El Salvador where seas are 4-7 ft due to the gap wind event in Papagayo.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong gap winds are expected in the Papagayo region through this morning. Then, mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail the remainder of the forecast period. Seas are forecast to remain below 8 ft. Elsewhere, little change in the marine conditions is forecast. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the offshore waters of Central America, Colombia, and Ecuador. Slight seas can be expected across most of the offshore waters through the next several days, except in the Papagayo region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A surface trough extends from 18N124 to 10N128W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted near the northern end of the trough axis from 16N to 20N between 120W and 124W. Similar convective activity is where the trough axis meets the ITCZ. A surface ridge extends across the northern forecast waters beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. A large area of fresh to strong NE-E winds is noted per scatterometer data just N of the the ITCZ to about 24N and west of 125W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft across this wind zone based on altimeter data. Moderate to fresh SE winds are noted across much of the area south of the ITCZ to the equator, between 110W and 140W, where seas are 6 to 7 ft. For the forecast, the ridge will strengthen across the forecast area over the next 24 to 36 hours. The aforementioned surface trough will move westward, approaching 140W by Fri. The pressure gradient between the trough and the aforementioned ridge will continue to support a large area of fresh to strong winds across the west-central waters. Winds and seas are expected to peak tonight, with seas building to 9 to 12 ft are expected mainly across the waters from 12N to 24N and W of 130W. The aerial coverage of these winds will decrease Fri night into Sat as a cold front moves across the N waters weakening the ridge. The front is forecast to reach the forecast region early on Fri followed by a second and stronger cold front late on Sat. Long period northerly swell is forecast to reach the northern forecast waters by Sat night into Sun, with seas building to 9-13 ft by Sun night. $$ GR