Expires:No;;794382 AXPZ20 KNHC 010838 TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Aug 1 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Warning: Hurricane Hilda is centered near 14.5N 119.6W at 01/0900 UTC moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are near 28 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 11N to 18N between 116W and 122W. Hilda is expected to continue moving WNW early this week, before making a turn to the NW. Additional strengthen is expected today, and Hilda is expected to become a Category 2 hurricane. By Mon, a weakening trend should begin. Peak seas of 25 to 28 ft will prevail into Mon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Nine-E has become post-tropical overnight. Post- Tropical Cyclone Nine-E is centered near 11.4N 127.5W at 01/0900 UTC, drifting north. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are near 9 ft. Convection previously associated with Nine-E has diminished overnight. Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine-E is not expected to strengthen anymore as it moves slowly west early this week. Some strong winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are possible in its path. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details. Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated in association with broad, 1008 mb, low pressure near 15N109W, with numerous strong convection now ongoing from 08N to 18N between 103W and 112W. This low is likely to become a tropical depression today or tonight as it moves WNW at around 10 kt, away from the coast of Mexico. By late Mon, development is unlikely as the system will move over cooler waters. There is a high chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is noted along 92W, extending from 05N N into Guatemala, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection has developed ahead of this wave overnight, and now stretches from 04N to 15N between 92W and 102W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 09N76W to the 1008 mb low pressure near 15N109W, described in the Special Features Section above. The ITCZ has developed from 10N135W to beyond 10N140W. Convection in the vicinity of the monsoon trough is primarily associated with features described in the Special Features and Tropical Wave sections above. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for information on low pressure well south of southern Mexico that has a high chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. Surface ridging extends from a 1030 mb high near 38N146W southeastward to 17N124W. NE to N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec are fresh. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker across the Mexican offshores and the Gulf of California. Seas are 4-6 ft across the Mexican offshores and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure farther to the south will support fresh to perhaps locally strong pulses of N gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec today. Low pressure well SW of Manzanillo, Mexico is likely to become a tropical depression today or Monday as it moves WNW. This could be strong winds and higher seas to waters well offshore Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, as well as near the Revillagigedo Islands. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E gap winds are occurring in the Papagayo region early this morning with winds moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft across the Central American and equatorial offshore zones. For the forecast, fresh NE to E gap winds will continue today over the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, quiescent winds should prevail into late week. SW swell will build combined seas to 6-8 ft over the equatorial waters before relaxing on Mon.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details on newly- upgraded Hurricane Hilda and Tropical Depression Nine-E. Surface ridging extends from a 1030 mb high near 38N146W southeastward to 17N124W. NE trades south of the ridge and north of the monsoon trough are generally moderate or weaker, except in the vicinity of the two tropical cyclones with fresh winds. South of the monsoon trough S to SW winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are generally 4-6 ft, except for seas 6-8 ft south of the equator and east of 120W due to SW swell. Winds and seas over some sections of the area will be impacted by the two tropical cyclones detailed in the Special Features during the next several days.