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Eastern Pacific Tropical Outlook
Latest Eastern Pacific Tropical Report
Expires:No;;873881 AXPZ20 KNHC 261603 TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Oct 26 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... A strong pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the Great Basin and an area of low pressure over the SW United States associated with a frontal system is supporting fresh to strong SW to W winds ahead of a pre-frontal trough moving over the northern and central Gulf of California. The low will continue to move E today, and push a cold front southward with strong to near gale force northerly winds pushing south across the northern and central gulf this morning. Winds will rapidly gain gale force afterwards and will continue to affect the northern and central gulf waters through early Tue. However, fresh to strong winds will reach the southern gulf and the entrance of the gulf Mon through early Wed. Seas are expected to become very rough over the northern Gulf of California today and tonight, with wave heights reaching 11 ft before subsiding to around 9 ft early on Tue. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 04N to 15N with axis near 126W, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the northern section of the wave axis from 13N to 16N between 120W and 127W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N86W to 10N110W to 11N126W. The ITCZ begins near 10N129W and continues beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 09N to 14N between 85W and 98W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 13W between 108W and 113W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on a gale event in the northern Gulf of California. Mainly moderate to locally fresh northwest winds are across the offshore waters of Baja California with seas to 6 ft. These winds are forecast to continue through Wed morning associated with a gap wind event in the Gulf of California. Strong winds are forecast to funnel to the waters N of Punta Eugenia tonight and Tue. Seas are expected be in the 6-7 ft range during this period. Gentle to moderate winds are forecast to dominate the offshore waters W of Baja Wed evening through early Fri and become light to gentle the remainder of the period. Moderate to fresh N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse to strong tonight and then winds will decrease to light and gentle speeds through Thu. The next gap wind event in Tehuantepec is forecast to begin Thu evening. The models suggest a rapid wind increase to near gale force by Fri morning. Gale force winds are possible during the upcoming weekend. Winds will remain light to gentle over the SW Mexico offshore waters, except for the offshore waters between Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo where moderate to fresh northwest winds are expected Tue through Thu evening associated with the gap wind event in the Gulf of California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh south to southwest winds will prevail mainly between the monsoon trough and just N of the Galapagos Islands through the forecast period. Seas are expected to remain in the 5-6 ft range, increasing to 7 ft late in the week due to the next Tehuantepec gap wind event.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong 1034 mb high pressure north of the region extends a broad ridge southward into the discussion area to 20N143W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure near the California coast is allowing for moderate to fresh NE winds over the area west of 130W. A tropical wave along 126W continues to support moderate to locally fresh NE winds roughly from 15N to 21N W of 132W. These conditions will slowly diminish today as the ridge weakens and the tropical wave moves west of the forecast area. $$ Torres