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Eastern Pacific Tropical Outlook
Latest Eastern Pacific Tropical Report
Expires:No;;452591 AXPZ20 KNHC 250805 TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Jan 25 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Northern Gulf of California and Baja California Norte Gale Warning: A strong cold front will reach Baja California Norte early today. Gale force winds are forecast north of 29N in the Gulf of California this afternoon and this evening. Gale force winds are also forecast north of 31N west of Baja California Norte this afternoon and tonight. Strong wind speeds are expected elsewhere north of Punta Eugenia through Tue. Seas will reach 8-12 ft in the northern Gulf of California tonight. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. Large Swell west of Baja California Norte: A strong cold front will reach Baja California Norte early today, with large long- period NW swell expected west of Baja California today through Tue night. Significant wave heights up to 20 ft are expected west of Baja California Norte this afternoon through tonight. There is a significant risk of hazardous surf conditions north of Punta Eugenia through Tue evening. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details and refer to local statements issued by your national meteorological service. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 1009 mb low pressure over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 04N88W to 05N105W. The ITCZ extends from 05N105W to 08N122W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 12N between 115W and 133W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 11N between 96W and 102W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning in effect for the northern Gulf of California and west of Baja California Norte, as well as details on a very large NW swell event. Moderate to fresh winds prevail west of Baja California. These winds will increase this morning as a strong cold front approaches. Fresh to strong SW winds are found over portions of the northern Gulf of California. Moderate winds prevail elsewhere N of Cabo Corrientes. Farther to the southeast, gentle winds prevail offshore the remainder of Mexico. Seas are 8-11 ft in NW swell offshore Baja California Norte and 6-8 ft off Baja California Sur. Seas are 4-6 ft offshore the remainder of Mexico. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast from the southern Gulf of California to near Cabo Corrientes Tue night through Wed. Gale force northerly winds are possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed night through the end of the week. Another large NW swell event is possible west of Baja California Thu through the end of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong offshore winds are noted in the Papagayo region. Winds will continue to pulse to fresh to strong through the week, with the strongest winds, around 30 kt, expected Thu night through Fri night. Seas will occasionally build to 6 ft with the pulsing winds, except 7-11 ft Thu night through Fri night. Fresh to strong northerly winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama. The winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to moderate to fresh in the next few hours, with fresh to strong possible again Thu night through Fri night. Seas of 4-6 ft are forecast to persist through tonight. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere. Large seas generated by a strong gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region may spread across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Thu night through Fri night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure well northwest of the area extends a ridge southeastward all the way to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trade winds north of the ITCZ and west of 120W, confirmed by recent ASCAT data. Seas in this area are in the 8-12 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE-E wind waves. The strong pressure gradient is forecast to remain in place through Tue, allowing for a continuation of fresh to strong trade winds through Tue. A NW-N swell event continues to spread southward across the area, with seas currently 8-12 ft north of 20N. This will be followed by larger, long-period NW swell arriving today, associated with a strong cold front moving into Baja California Norte. The swell will spread southward across much of the forecast area north of 15N between 110W and 135W. Highest seas are expected later today through Tue west of Baja California. Looking ahead, another strong cold front will drop south of 30N on Wed with fresh to strong winds both ahead of and behind it through Thu, mainly north of 25N. Another set of large northerly swell will accompany this system, propagating southward across the entire area through the end of the week. $$ Lewitsky