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Eastern Pacific Tropical Outlook
Latest Eastern Pacific Tropical Report
Expires:No;;759360 AXPZ20 KNHC 170233 TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 120 UTC Wed Jul 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis near 94W N of 03N is moving west around 15 kt. A broad cyclonic surface circulation is associated with this wave and a low is analyzed to have formed near 09N93W along the wave axis. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 92W and 100W. Environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive for gradual development later this week, and a tropical depression could form by the weekend as it moves well south of the coast of Mexico.

A tropical wave with axis near 114W from 03N to 20N is moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 06N to 13N between 110W and 120W.

A tropical wave with axis near 135W from 03N to 15N is moving west around 15 kt. No significant deep convection is currently occurring in association with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N93W to 09N101W to 13N120W to 10N133W. The ITCZ extends from 10N133W to 09N135W. It resumes from 09N137W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 83W and 86W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 10N to 13N between 100W and 110W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 07N to 13N between 120W and 128W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 08N to 10N W of 138W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface high well west of California is contributing to quiescent winds over most of the Mexican offshore zones through Sun. A complex low pressure system over the U.S. Great Basin is forcing SE fresh to strong breeze over the central and northern Gulf of California through Wed. A surface high over the Gulf of Mexico combined with the monsoon trough will force a N fresh to strong gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec from Wed through Fri. No tropical cyclone activity is expected to impact the Mexican offshore zones for the next several days. No significant long period-swell should affect the area through at least Sun.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A moderate N to S pressure gradient across Central America is forcing NE to E winds up to strong breeze in the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun. Elsewhere E winds should remain moderate or weaker north of the monsoon trough along 09N/10N, and S to SW moderate breeze or weaker south of the trough. No tropical cyclone activity is expected to impact the Central America offshore zones for the next several days. No significant long- period swell should affect the area through at least Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends from high pressure northwest of our area near 38N151W se to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between with area of high pressure and low pressure along the monsoon trough will help for moderate to fresh NE tradewinds for the next several days. Low pressure of 1008 mb is centered near 11N94W. Environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive for gradual development of this low later this week, and a tropical depression could form this weekend as it moves well south of the coast of Mexico. No significant long period- swell should affect the area through at least Sun.

$$ AL