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Eastern Pacific Tropical Outlook
Latest Eastern Pacific Tropical Report
Expires:No;;854199 AXPZ20 KNHC 142234 TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jul 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 86W and north of 03N to across eastern Honduras and central Nicaragua and to the northwestern Caribbean Sea. It is moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of a line from 06N83W to 06N86W. A tropical wave has its axis along 99W from 04N to across southeastern Mexico near 18N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm east of the wave from 07N to 09N and within 60 nm either side of the wave from 10N to 12N. A tropical wave was added to along 121W from 03N to 18N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. This wave spawned the recent Tropical Depression Six-E. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm east of the wave from 10N to 11N and within 60 nm west of the wave from 09N to 11N. A tropical wave has its axis along 127W from 03N to 11N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Only scattered moderate convection is occurring within 30 nm of 08N127W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1010 mb low over northwestern Colombia westward to across central Costa Rica and to the coast at 10N85W. It continues to 09N97W to 09N104W to 12N110W to 11N121W to 11N130W and to 11N140W. Aside from the convection described above in association with the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 60 nm south of the trough between 94W-97W and within 30 nm of the trough between 117W-119W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1008 mb weakening low is centered near 18.2N 118.2W moving westward at 17 kt. This low is the remnants of recent Tropical Depression Six-E. Winds of 20-25 kt along with peak seas to 8 ft are present within 60 nm of the low in the northern semicircle as was observed in ASCAT pass from this afternoon. The low will soon weaken further to a trough as it quickly moves westward, with winds diminishing to mainly fresh speeds and seas lowering to below 8 ft. The trough will dissipate by late Wed night. The pressure gradient related to a trough over Baja California is allowing for generally fresh southeast winds over the northern Gulf of California. These winds will diminish to mainly moderate winds tonight. For waters west of Baja California, fresh to locally strong northwest winds will continue until Thu night. High pressure building into the Gulf of Mexico Thu and Fri will likely lead to strong gap winds in and downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec from Thu night into early Sun. While current guidance suggest near-gale conditions late Fri, peak seas are anticipated to reach around 8 ft due to the limited area and duration of these gap winds. No significant long-period swell are expected in the Mexican offshore zones for at least the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast to east winds will begin to surge across the Papagayo region beginning tonight, then diminish some to mainly fresh winds on Wed. These winds will start up again with fresh to locally strong speeds early on Thu and diminish to mainly fresh speeds on Thu afternoon. Similar fresh to locally strong winds will materialize late Thu night and diminish to fresh speeds on Fri afternoon. Peak seas with these winds may reach 8 ft. Moderate to fresh monsoonal southwest winds will remain over the waters S of 09N through the next few days along with seas of 3-5 ft due to a southwest swell component. No significant long-period swell are expected in the Central American and equatorial offshore zones for at least the next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Low pressure of 1010 mb is located near 22N135W, while to its northwest a strong 1032 mb high is centered near 41N143W, with a ridge stretching southeastward to offshore Baja California. The pressure gradient between the high and low is continuing to leading to a fairly broad area of strong east winds just north of the low, along with seas reaching up to 11 ft. These conditions will shift to west of 140W on Wed as the low crosses 140W. Moderate to fresh south winds remain to the south of the monsoon trough between 110W and 125W. These winds are combining with some southwest swell resulting in combined seas of 8 to 10 ft. These will progress westward before diminishing on Fri. A weak cold front or trough may push southward to around 25N between 120W and 130W Thu and Fri. The front could usher in fresh north winds over a section of the far northern waters portion be accompanied by fresh north winds along with seas in the range of 8-10 ft seas. $$ Aguirre