Expires:No;;675471 AXPZ20 KNHC 290322 TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jan 29 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 10N74W TO 06.5N78W TO 07N85W TO 03.5N102W. The ITCZ continues from 03.5N102W TO 05.5N111W TO beyond 07N140W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06.5N TO 10N between 122W AND 140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 30 NM either side of line from 11N107W TO 12N114.5W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge extends across the forecast waters west of the Baja California peninsula this evening. A modest pressure gradient between this ridge and a surface trough across the Baja California peninsula is supporting moderate to fresh northerly winds off the coast of Baja California. Gentle to moderate northwesterly winds prevail elsewhere across the open waters off the coast of Mexico from Cabo Corrientes to Puerto Angel. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the Gulf of California. Afternoon scatterometer data showed northerly winds around 20 kt inside the Gulf from Punta Concepcion to Isla San Jose, and these winds are estimated to be continuing at this time. Seas in that area are likely peaking at 5-6 ft. Long period NW swell, with seas greater than 8 ft, prevails over the forecast waters west of the Baja California peninsula. Seas are peaking around 13 ft off the coast of Baja California Norte. Additional pulses of northerly swell will help maintain seas of 8 ft or greater over the forecast waters west of the Baja California peninsula through Fri, before starting to slowly subside below 8 ft Sat. A cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico during the middle of the week, reaching the Bay of Campeche Wed evening. Winds behind the front will funnel through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, producing strengthening winds across Tehuantepec. The timing of these gap winds will coincide with peak nocturnal drainage flow overnight Wed into Thu. This will enable these winds to briefly pulse to around 30 kt then diminish quickly after sunrise Thu. A progressive weather pattern will cause this front to rapidly shift across the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico by early Thu, with high pressure following the front. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event is likely starting Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A weak pressure pattern across Central America will prevail through Friday, which will support light to gentle winds across the offshore waters and quiescent marine conditions. A small area of scattered moderate thunderstorms has developed this evening along coastal Costa Rica, and extends to near 75 nm offshore. Moderate offshore winds are fueling this activity. Winds will continue to pulse from moderate to fresh across the Gulf of Papagayo region and across the Gulf of Panama during the overnight hours this week. Winds are then expected to increase across the Gulf of Papagayo region this weekend as a cold front moves into the NW Caribbean. SW swell will propagate into the forecast waters between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador Wed night into Thu.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1030 mb is centered N of the area near 31N132W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong tradewinds N of the ITCZ to 24N and W of 122W. This area of high pressure will remain nearly stationary through Fri, with only minor fluctuations in strength. This will maintain the area of fresh to strong trades through Thu. The area of high pressure will start to shift NE on Fri as the high pressure center weakens ahead of a new strong cold front. This will loosen the pressure gradient and diminish areal coverage of strong trades Fri into the weekend.
Long period NW swell dominates the forecast waters, with seas 8 ft or greater covering much of the waters N of 05N and W of 110W. Additional pulses of NW swell will propagate into the forecast waters, maintaining these seas through the week.