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Afton, OK Weather Warnings

Issue Date: 456 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2023  
...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas.
ONSET...This evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Mainly southeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...This evening.

DISCUSSION...

Areas of rain will become more widespread this evening and continue
through the night as an upper level low approaches the area. There
will be enough elevated instability for some thunderstorms across
southeast Oklahoma and into west-central Arkansas.

Additional rainfall amounts of a half inch approaching locally 2 inches will
be possible through tonight. The higher end of these amounts look
to be across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas, which could create the
potential for localized flash flood conditions overnight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY...Winter Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.
FRIDAY...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY...No Hazards.
SUNDAY...High Wind Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Widespread rain along with chances for thunderstorms are forecast to
be ongoing Wednesday morning, and continue through the day ahead of
an upper level low pressure system moving into the region. The
greater potential for thunder is forecast across southeast Oklahoma.
Rain showers finally begin to taper off from southwest to northeast
Wednesday night with the exiting low pressure system. Additional
rainfall of a half inch to locally over one and a half inches will
be possible Wednesday into Wednesday night. Again, the higher of
these amounts are forecast over southeast Oklahoma into northwest
Arkansas. Both areal flooding as well as main-stem river flooding
could be possible with the multiple day rainfall.

A second upper level low pressure system is forecast to quickly move
across the region Thursday night and Friday. Indications show an
isolated potential for a few snow flakes and or light snow to be
possible near the Oklahoma Kansas border into far northwest Arkansas
late Thursday night into early Friday morning. Little to no
accumulations and no impacts are expected. Behind this second
system, southerly winds return for the weekend and become gusty
Sunday ahead of another low pressure system looking to move into the
region early next week.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Data shows the greater potential for river flooding within the Illinois River
and the Poteau River Basins. Those with interests along these rivers should
continue to monitor latest forecasts.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Afton, OK Weather Warnings, Advisories and Alerts are issued by the National Weather Service. More information can be found here: https://www.weatherwx.com/stormwarnings/ok/afton.html