Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 PM EDT Thu Aug 06 2020
Valid Fri Aug 07 2020 - Sun Aug 09 2020
...Unsettled weather along much of the East Coast into Saturday with
locally heavy rain and flash flooding possible...
...Scattered thunderstorms in the central to northern Plains could become
severe Friday and Saturday...
...A wildfire risk remains elevated across portions of the western U.S...
A quasi-stationary front is forecast to linger across the Mid-Atlantic and
Southeast over the next couple of days, which will keep an increased risk
for thunderstorms which will obtain peak coverage during the afternoon and
evening hours. Some of the thunderstorms will be slow moving, capable of
producing very heavy rainfall over a short period of time, resulting in a
flash flood threat. The flash flood threat will be increased from portions
of the Carolinas into the northern Mid-Atlantic states where the soil
moisture is elevated due to recent heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm
An upper level disturbance will track eastward through southern Canada
Friday into Friday night, with a cold front following at the surface.
Ahead of the front, temperatures and dewpoints will rise into the
north-central U.S. helping to support thunderstorms, some of which could
be strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for
severe thunderstorms on Friday/Friday night across North Dakota into
northwestern Minnesota with immediately surrounding locations also seeing
increased risks for severe thunderstorms. Flash flooding could also occur
with these storms. The severe threat shifts southward for Saturday as the
cold front slowly advances south and east.
Across the western U.S., gusty winds and dry relative humidities will
continue conditions that are favorable for fire weather for portions of
the Intermountain West and Desert Southwest today. Fire weather risks will
remain on Friday for portions of Montana in the wake of the cold front
discussed above as well as into portions of Utah and Colorado. Meanwhile
across the Southwest, the monsoon season will remain rather inactive
through at least this upcoming weekend with the best moisture staying
south of the U.S. border.
Graphics available at:
NWS Weather Prediction Center
Storm Prediction Center
United States 2 Day Forecast
SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Aug 7 01:16:01 UTC 2020
No watches are valid as of Fri Aug 7 01:16:01 UTC 2020.
Thu, Aug 06, 2020 09:15:13 PM
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Fri Aug 7 01:16:01 UTC 2020
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Aug 7 01:16:01 UTC 2020.
Thu, Aug 06, 2020 09:15:15 PM
SPC Aug 7, 2020 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Thu Aug 06 2020
Valid 070100Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS AND FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO SOUTHERN MARYLAND...
Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms will persist this evening
across the Great Plains. A few strong storms will also linger across
parts of North Carolina into southern Maryland. Gusty winds are the
Notable short-wave trough is ejecting across eastern WA/OR this
evening. This feature will flatten the northern Rockies ridge as it
progresses across western MT by sunrise. Well ahead of the short
wave, isolated strong/severe storms have developed along the lee
trough from southeast MT - eastern WY - eastern CO. This activity
should gradually shift east this evening as nocturnal LLJ begins to
increase across the High Plains. 00z sounding from RAP was quite
unstable with modest deep-layer flow. While storm motions should
remain somewhat slow, adequate shear exists for at least organized
Considerable amount of diurnal convection has been observed over the
Southeast into the Delmarva region. 00z soundings across this region
exhibit poor lapse rates, high PW, and only modest shear. A few
strong storms will linger across this region for the next hour or
two, but for the most part, convective overturning has resulted in
limited buoyancy, and this should result in weakening updrafts.
Thu, Aug 06, 2020 09:04:16 PM