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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
425 AM EDT Wed Aug 04 2021

Valid Wed Aug 04 2021 - Fri Aug 06 2021

..Early heavy rain near the North Carolina coast should edge slowly out to
sea today...

...Heat returns to the Desert Southwest and Interior Pacific Northwest
today while the central Plains to the East Coast see below normal

A mid- to upper-level ridge building from the Southwest into the Pacific
Northwest will continue to spread drier conditions across the interior
sections of the West Coast while shifting the most active monsoonal
showers further eastward from the central and southern Rockies into the
High Plains today.  Locally heavy rain is possible early today over the
southern Rockies/High Plains before diminishing later today.  Meanwhile,
the drying trend brought by the building ridge will lead to above average
temperatures across the Desert Southwest northward to the interior Pacific
Northwest.  High temperatures in the 110s will be common in the Desert
Southwest for the next couple of days while upper 90s to 100 degrees are
forecast for the interior Pacific Northwest this afternoon.  As a result,
Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect for the Desert Southwest through
Thursday evening while Heat Advisories are in effect for today across
interior Pacific Northwest.  In addition, fire weather danger is forecast
to increase over the Great Basin into Thursday.  A system moving east from
the Pacific will begin to bring cooler air into the Pacific Northwest on
Thursday together with a round of rain/thunderstorms eastward into the
northern Rockies.  The rain/storms are expected to continue across the
northern Rockies into early Friday as the heat spreads further east into
the northern Plains and upper Midwest where high temperatures are forecast
to reach into the 80s and 90s the next couple of days.

Meanwhile, a frontal boundary is forecast to remain nearly stationary
near/along the Gulf Coast as well as along/just off the East Coast for the
next few days.  An axis of heavy rain is forecast to extend along or just
east of the boundary near the East Coast.  The heaviest rainfall should
stay just off the coast as the heavy rain early this morning near the
North Carolina coast is forecast to edge slowly out to sea later today. 
However, a slight westward shift of the front would bring the heavy rain
back along/near the coast at any time.  Some heavy rainfall is also
possible across northern Florida just south of the front.  Meanwhile, the
heaviest rains should stay off the Gulf Coast but some enhanced rainfall
is expected farther westward across southern Texas for the next couple of

Elsewhere, below normal temperatures are expected from the central Plains
to the East Coast, with highs mainly in the 80s.  The dry airmass will
also allow temperatures to cool off at night, with lows dipping down into
the 60s from north Texas and Oklahoma east to the Mid-Atlantic and coastal
Northeast and lows in the 50s for the interior Northeast.  Portions of the
Carolinas under the influence of clouds and precipitation as well as New
England will see highs only in the 70s.


Graphics available at:
NWS Weather Prediction Center Storm Prediction Center
United States 2 Day Forecast

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